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Date May 2011 Marks available 4 Reference code 11M.1.hl.TZ2.9
Level HL only Paper 1 Time zone TZ2
Command term What is Question number 9 Adapted from N/A

Question

A batch of 15 DVD players contains 4 that are defective. The DVD players are selected at random, one by one, and examined. The ones that are checked are not replaced.

What is the probability that there are exactly 3 defective DVD players in the first 8 DVD players examined?

[4]
a.

What is the probability that the 9th DVD player examined is the 4th defective one found?

[3]
b.

Markscheme

METHOD 1

P(3 defective in first 8) =(83)×415×314×213×1112×1011×910×89×78     M1A1A1

Note: Award M1 for multiplication of probabilities with decreasing denominators.

Award A1 for multiplication of correct eight probabilities.

Award A1 for multiplying by (83).

 

=56195     A1 

METHOD 2

P(3 defective DVD players from 8) =(43)(115)(158)     M1A1

Note: Award M1 for an expression of this form containing three combinations.

 

=4!3!1!×11!5!6!15!8!7!     M1

=56195     A1 

[4 marks]

a.

P(9th selected is 4th defective player|3 defective in first 8)=17     (A1)

P(9th selected is 4th defective player)=56195×17     M1

=8195     A1

[3 marks]

b.

Examiners report

There were two main methods used to complete this question, the most common being a combinations approach. Those who did this coped well with the factorial simplification. Many who did not manage the first part were able to complete the second part successfully.

a.

There were two main methods used to complete this question, the most common being a combinations approach. Those who did this coped well with the factorial simplification. Many who did not manage the first part were able to complete the second part successfully.

b.

Syllabus sections

Topic 5 - Core: Statistics and probability » 5.2 » Concepts of trial, outcome, equally likely outcomes, sample space (U) and event.

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